If you follow mortgage rates for a while, you will notice they tend to move in the same direction as the 10-year Treasury yield. Here is why, and how big the gap between them has been.
Why they move together
Investors who buy mortgage-backed securities compare them with Treasury bonds. Because many home loans are paid off or refinanced within about a decade, the 10-year Treasury is a common yardstick for pricing a 30-year mortgage.
The last several years
30-year fixed mortgage rate10-year Treasury yield
The gap between them
The difference between the average 30-year mortgage rate and the 10-year Treasury yield is called the spread. It changes with market conditions. Here is the average spread each year, from the same data.
| Year | Average spread |
|---|---|
| 2018 | 1.63 points |
| 2019 | 1.79 points |
| 2020 | 2.21 points |
| 2021 | 1.52 points |
| 2022 | 2.40 points |
| 2023 | 2.86 points |
| 2024 | 2.51 points |
| 2025 | 2.32 points |
| 2026 | 1.96 points |
On Sep 24, 2026 the 10-year Treasury yield was 5.18%, and the Freddie Mac survey average for the week of Sep 24, 2026 was 7.03%.
What this means
Watching the 10-year yield can help you understand why mortgage rates changed in a given week. It does not tell you what your own rate will be, since lenders price each loan individually.
Talk to a lender. Rates, loan programs and approvals come from lenders, not from websites or real estate agents. Talk to your own mortgage broker, or use our preferred lender, Rodrigo Ballon with CrossCountry Mortgage, at 858-735-0255. You are always free to choose any lender you like, and you can verify any lender’s license at nmlsconsumeraccess.org.
Where these numbers come from
- Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey for weekly average mortgage rates.
- FRED (St. Louis Fed) for the federal funds target range and the 10-year Treasury yield.
- Federal Reserve FOMC calendar for meeting dates and statements.
- Investing.com Fed Rate Monitor, which shows market expectations for upcoming meetings based on federal funds futures, and its Fed Interest Rate Decision calendar.
Data as of Sep 24, 2026. These pages describe the past and the present and make no predictions. Investing.com and the other sources are independent of Rudy Flores and Coldwell Banker West.
More on interest rates
- The Fed's Rate Decisions vs. Mortgage Rates: What Is the Difference? — The Federal Reserve sets one short-term rate. Mortgage rates follow a different set of forces. Here is how the two relate, with the recent decisions.
- Interest Rate, APR and Points: How to Read a Loan Estimate — Three numbers show up on every mortgage quote. Here is what each one means, with a worked example.
- What One Point of Interest Rate Means for Your Monthly Payment — A simple table of monthly principal and interest for common loan sizes, from 5% to 8%.
- Fixed Rate, Adjustable Rate and Buydowns: The Basics — How the main loan structures work, and what a temporary or permanent rate buydown means.
- Mortgage Rates Through the Decades: 1971 to Today — Freddie Mac's weekly survey goes back to 1971. Here are the average, the high and the low for every decade.
General information, not financial advice.